Lead Concentrate Imports Continued to Decline in May 2025, with Lead Concentrate TCs More Likely to Fall Than Rise [SMM Analysis]

According to customs data, lead concentrate imports in May 2025 were approximately 104,000 mt, down 6.4% MoM but up 3.8% YoY. The cumulative imports for 2025 reached approximately 552,676 mt, marking a 64% increase YoY compared to 2024.

From the perspective of import profit margins, lead concentrate imports in May remained in a state of minor losses, with the import window yet to open. Additionally, in Q1, the supply of lead concentrates from regions such as Australia declined. Coupled with widespread market concerns about the prices of US Red Dog lead concentrates following the tariff hike in Q3, the tender and bid prices for lead concentrate TCs fell once again. Currently, imported lead concentrates still primarily rely on the trade market or long-term orders from smelters arriving at ports.

Despite lead concentrate imports increasing by over 60% YoY, silver prices continued to hit new highs in 2025, expanding the domestic and international arbitrage space and encouraging smelters to operate actively to achieve higher by-product revenues and export profits. Domestic lead concentrate supply remained relatively stable. However, due to factors such as the supply of imported ore falling short of expectations and the scarcity of high-grade ore, lead concentrate TCs fell again in June. According to smelters, the current quoted price for lead concentrates (pb50TC) with silver content ranging from 1.5-2 kg/mt is 0-200 yuan/mt (metal content), with additional payments for silver refining fees or coefficient pricing still required based on market conditions. Looking ahead to H2 2025, the outlook for lead concentrate imports remains pessimistic, and domestic lead concentrate supply is expected to continue in a state of tight balance.